According to a report on October 14, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 on the 14th. OPEC also revised down its forecast for next year. This marks the third consecutive downward revision by the oil-producing country organization.
The weaker demand outlook highlights the dilemma faced by "OPEC+". "OPEC+" consists of member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some allies, including Russia.
After delaying production increases earlier against the backdrop of falling prices, Russia plans to start increasing production in December.
In a monthly report on the 14th, OPEC stated that the world's daily oil demand in 2024 will increase by 1.93 million barrels, lower than the organization's forecast of a 2.03 million barrel increase last month.
Until August, OPEC had maintained the forecast made for the first time in July 2023.
After the report was released, oil prices fell by about 2% earlier, and Brent crude oil prices broke below $78 per barrel.
OPEC said that this year's daily demand growth is still higher than the historical average of 1.4 million barrels before the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic had led to a significant decrease in oil usage.
As for next year, OPEC reduced its global daily demand growth forecast for 2025 from 1.74 million barrels to 1.64 million barrels.
According to a report on the website of the US Fox News Channel on October 13, despite the US government's strict sanctions on Iran, Iran still increased its oil exports during the Biden administration.
The US Energy Information Administration released an annual report on Iran's oil and oil product exports, finding that Iran's exports in 2022 and 2023 were both between $53 billion and $54 billion, much higher than $37 billion in 2021 and $16 billion in 2020. The Energy Information Administration's report is authorized by the US Congress.The Biden administration attempted to appease Iran through a series of sanctions exemptions, with officials believing this would incentivize Tehran to sit down and reach an agreement on a new nuclear deal, but this never materialized. The plummeting oil prices due to sanctions have made Iran's products extremely attractive.
According to a report on the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel website on October 14, recent data indicates that despite the G7 setting a price cap on Russian oil exports and the U.S. imposing sanctions on Russia, the discount on Russian oil is narrowing, and exports are increasing.
ClearView Energy Partners recently provided its clients with a report on the G7's restrictions on Russian oil transportation. The report shows that the restrictions are increasingly losing their effectiveness.
Additionally, another report indicates that Russian oil transportation volumes reached a record level in September this year.
Data analysis from Lloyd's List Intelligence states that 69% of all Russian oil export shipments in September were carried by "dark tankers." This is the largest transportation volume since tracking the "dark fleet" monthly transportation data began in mid-2022. The previous highest transportation proportion was 54% in May of this year.
post your comment